Inside story: Keep your eyes on Idonije
That's the popular view of the big game around the country. The Bears have a different idea, of course. They've been blessed with the gift of faith. There are no atheists in their locker room. They won't be burdened by self-doubt or a lack of confidence against a player who finally has emerged from a careerlong playoff malaise in his ninth season.
Truth be told, Manning has played well for exactly one half this post-season, although he was magnificent in those final two quarters against the New England Patriots to get the Colts out of the AFC Championship Game. He well might be spectacular today against the Bears.
But if you talk to enough professional scouts and national experts about the game -- most of whom are picking against the Bears -- one name keeps coming up in conversation, and it's not Manning's. The general consensus is that the Bears could win this game if they only had the injured Tommie Harris available.
It's an interesting idea. The way to shake Manning -- or any quarterback, for that matter -- is to get pressure on him. Manning's mind and release are too quick to get to him through the blitz. He doesn't drop deep enough in the pocket to be a target for defensive ends, who can come close but not quite make it there before he delivers the ball.
The way to beat Manning is to come at him up the middle. He has struggled against 3-4 fronts because the blitz can come from different angles and keep him from getting comfortable. A 4-3 team like the Bears has just one chance, and that's to get pressure from the inside guys. Without the predatory threat of Harris, the team's best interior pass rusher, Manning will pick the Bears apart.
Truth is, football is a matchup game, and Manning is a difficult player for any team in the league. But the matchups in this game, particularly on the line of scrimmage, might give the Bears more of an edge than people believe. The Bears' offensive line is a big, veteran group that won't be overwhelmed by the speed of the Colts' undersized defensive front.
If the game gets out of hand and the Bears are forced to throw on every play, they'll have major problems. This team isn't built to come from behind. But if the defense can do its thing and the Bears stick to a running game plan, they'll be able to keep the Colts off-balance and hit them with play-action. The Colts will load up against the run early in the game, so Rex Grossman might need to hit a couple of passes to keep them honest. He's not known as a fast starter, but as long as he doesn't make any mistakes, the Bears should be able to stay in the game.
The interesting matchups will come on the other side of the ball, where the Bears' defense will have to move the line of scrimmage into the Colts' backfield without the disruptive Harris.
''You can't replace a guy like Tommie,'' said tackle Israel Idonije, who will attempt to replace him in passing situations. ''You look along our line, and you have guys there to make plays -- to get there and make the sack and make the tackle. It's not a case of trying to replace Tommie. It's just something the coaches have put together, putting me in nickel situations. I have to get up the field and make plays.''
Idonije laughs at the idea that he's a secret weapon of some kind, but at 6-6 he can get his hands up and get in the passing lanes and perhaps bat a pass or two. He also had a sack against the New Orleans Saints two weeks ago. When the Bears go to a rushing group that includes Idonije, 6-4 rookie Mark Anderson, 6-4 veteran Adewale Ogunleye and 6-3 Tank Johnson in passing situations, Idonije is the guy sure not to be burdened by a double-team.
''It's important, like it is every week, to get in the backfield and create problems and not let a quarterback get comfortable,'' Idonije said. ''Peyton Manning is a very prepared quarterback, and if you let him have time, he's going to let you have it. It's critical we get in there and create problems for him.''
Johnson will line up at the three-technique to start the game next to nose tackle Ian Scott, then slide to the nose position on passing downs. Johnson was the 47th selection in the 2004 draft, taken a round after the Bears used the 14th pick in the first round on Harris.
''It always comes down to the tackle play,'' Johnson said. ''That's kind of why when Lovie started this defense he drafted two of the best defensive tackles in the draft one and two. This defense relies on pressure up the middle.''
The Bears' defense has played better in the playoffs thanks to the continuity created when Johnson returned from his well-publicized legal problems and Idonije emerged as a threat inside. Scott and Alfonso Boone, who also will play in heavy rotation, are unrestricted free agents at the end of the season. With Johnson's offseason status also an issue, this might be a last go-around for the group.
Johnson said he doesn't feel a burden to play well to reward teammates who stuck by him when the team contemplated cutting him late in the season.
''I don't owe anyone anything,'' Johnson said. ''All I owe my teammates is playing hard, playing physical and making plays. I will do the things we always do, play physical and play fast. You can overcome a lot of different things -- talent and scheme -- if you play hard, play physical and play fast.''
You can even overcome Manning if you win the battle up front.