Bears or Colts? Leave it to the experts

Predictions should just be for fun. But for some reason, they seem to be of great importance.

Predictions are a skill, or maybe an art. And I'm not the best at it. I've had my successes, my failures. One time before the Masters, I wrote that Jack Nicklaus had become a ceremonial golfer, that he was just for show and should quit.

A few days later, along the 11th fairway at Augusta during Sunday's final round, with Nicklaus on the leaderboard, some writer from Seattle approached with his pen and paper out asking, ''Excuse me. Are you the guy who said that Nicklaus was done?''

I'm trying to make a prediction for today's Super Bowl, and on Monday I was sure the Bears would win, Tuesday and Wednesday it was the Colts, Thursday the Bears.

These predictions have become important for some reason. Everyone makes them. Somewhere out there, some newspaper is having a monkey make predictions, I'm sure, or a new goat at the zoo, and he'll pick better than a Hall of Fame quarterback. I predict that much.

The skill of prediction-making has nothing to do with knowledge. Rex Grossman complained the other day that the media are ignorant. Truth is, if his career goes well, in 15 years he'll get a TV gig, where he'll make all sorts of wrong predictions, too. And some young quarterback will complain that the media, including Grossman, are ignorant.

Check the Web, and you'll find some ex-NFL quarterbacks picking the Bears, some the Colts. Some of those people are ignorant.

Predictions should just be for fun. But for some reason, they seem to be of great importance. I predicted that the Bears would win the division, which they did. Then, I picked them to beat Seattle, which they did. And then I picked them to lose to New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game.

When they won, I was swamped with angry e-mailers demanding an apology for all my seasonlong hatred of the Bears.

It was just a prediction. It wasn't a sign of like or dislike, of civic loyalty or disloyalty. I did not grow up in Green Bay.

It's the subtlety that I'm not good at. If you look back before the New Orleans game, you'll see that some people predicted things like, ''If Rex Grossman has a big game, the Bears will win.'' That's called hedging.

That way, if the Bears won, those experts could say, ''See? I was right.'' And if the Bears had lost? ''See, I was right.''

Brilliant. I looked on ESPN.com Friday to see expert predictions, and there was this: ''So who will win Sunday? Without further ado, the best we can do. Pasquarelli: Da Bears/ Clayton: Da Colts. Farther down the page, if you clicked on ''Experts' picks,'' you saw a picture of Len Pasquarelli with this pick: Colts 27, Bears 23. MVP Peyton Manning.

That's not hedging. It's cheating.

I predict that the Super Bowl is not going to be close. But I don't know which team to pick. It's a matter of which style is going to work. Meanwhile, it seems that Super Bowls usually produce some surprise hero who has the game of his life at the biggest moment. You cannot predict the surprise. (Ricky Manning Jr.?)

So while I'm thinking blowout, I'll pick a close score as a sort of hedge. At this point in the column, I still have about 250 more words to make up my mind on a team.

I mean, Peyton Manning has been a great quarterback throughout his career, but then a dog in the postseason. The pressure was on him because a career without a Super Bowl cannot be considered among the all-time best. Then, he was his usual self in the AFC title game. Is the pressure off of him now? Or is it on because this might be his one and only chance to win it all? I predict the pressure is off.

The Bears' defense was fantastic early in the year, but not so good late. Then, against New Orleans, it was great again. Does that mean the defense is over its troubles, or that it just had one good game against a dome team trying to play a passing offense in mush? I predict the defense will be good, but not dominant.

The Colts' special teams aren't good, and Devin Hester can run one back for a touchdown at any time. He also can fumble at any time. I predict he'll run one back. But how do I know?

The Colts' run defense was bad all year, but now, suddenly, is pretty good. Prediction: The Bears will run well, but not great.

In the end, I'm going to take Indianapolis 27-24 in overtime, even though I think it'll be a blowout one way or the other. I'll have another prediction in this section, though, and might pull a Pasquarelli on you.

I do know this: If you asked every Bear privately, they would predict from deep in their hearts that they will win. Every Colts player would predict a Colts win.

That makes 45 or 50 very ignorant people. I just don't know which 45 or 50.

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