Fan's guide to the game

On the ground: This is what the Bears pay their veteran offensive line for. Center Olin Kreutz has a physical matchup with defensive tackle Anthony McFarland. The best way to slow speed-rushing ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis is to run right at them. With Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, the Bears will be able to remain fresh and need to grind out some long possessions to keep the defense rested against quarterback Peyton Manning. That's what coach Bill Belichick said the Patriots couldn't do; they just ran out of gas. Free safety Bob Sanders anchors the defense and is a fireball at times, but you ought to be able to block someone standing only 5-8. This is one of the league's most porous run defenses. Edge: Bears.

IN THE AIR: Rex Grossman probably can't win this game by himself, but he sure could lose it. He has done well handling the ball in the playoffs with only two turnovers, including one that went through Muhsin Muhammad's hands. He will be familiar with the Colts' Tampa-2 look and knows where the soft spots are. Indianapolis plays more zone coverage than the Bears. They won't be overly concerned with blitzes. The Colts prefer single-linebacker pressures with Cato June and Gary Brackett. But stopping Freeney and Mathis will be tough for John Tait and Fred Miller. The grass surface and some success running the football will set up play-action downfield, where Bernard Berrian must have a big game. The expected loss of cornerback Nick Harper will leave the secondary undermanned. Edge: Even.

Devin Hester can cap one of the greatest special-teams seasons with a big performance. A touchdown would be huge, but the Bears can benefit greatly from a sizable edge in field position. Indianapolis' coverage units are among the worst in the league, a problem you run into when so much salary is committed to a quarterback and wide receiver. There's not a lot of money to go around. Punter Brad Maynard has been excellent in the playoffs, and kicker Robbie Gould faces his one-time mentor, Adam Vinatieri.

Lovie Smith has pushed all the right buttons in guiding the Bears to the Super Bowl in only three seasons. He has delivered NFC North crowns and has the edge over Green Bay. Winning the Super Bowl would complete the trifecta he set out when he was hired. The Bears were outmatched by Carolina's game plan a year ago, but they've been spot on this season.

ON THE GROUND: If the Colts get running, this could be an awfully long and miserable affair for the Bears. Rookie Joseph Addai enjoys wide running lanes when everything is clicking. Combined with Dominic Rhodes, they enjoy a solid two-headed attack, but don't mistake this group for Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. Weak-side linebacker Lance Briggs will play a vital role as the Colts count on sealing off the back side when they run from their single-back sets. Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher has to get the front seven aligned, and the defense must be sure in tackling Addai, who runs hard. Defensive tackle Ian Scott could pave his way to free-agency riches by anchoring the front in a final stand. Edge: Bears.

IN THE AIR: The Bears will try to disguise their calls until it's too late for Peyton Manning to audible at the line. The biggest fear has to be him picking on inexperienced safeties Chris Harris and Danieal Manning. The former can be caught out of position, and the latter has made few big plays in the second half of the season. Manning doesn't get sacked often, and the Bears are counting on big performances from Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown. Mark Anderson could be the X-factor against talented tackles Tarik Glenn and Ryan Diem. Marvin Harrison is the top target, and Charles Tillman will draw coverage on him. The key is limiting what Harrison and Reggie Wayne do after the catch. Danieal Manning will have to control tight end Dallas Clark. Edge: Colts.

If you need a field goal to decide the Super Bowl, Adam Vinatieri is your man in the clutch. He's 37-for-45 in his postseason career, and this will be his record fifth Super Bowl. He has booted game-winners in two Super Bowls, and with one more, he might achieve his most difficult feat -- pave the way for a second kicker to join Jan Stenerud in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Terrence Wilkins is a dangerous returner on punts and kickoffs, and punter Brad Maynard will look to pin him along the sideline.

It just seemed like forever that Manning and Colts coach Tony Dungy carried the label of not being able to win the big one when it counted. This is the biggest one. Dungy has put his own stamp on the league and with a victory could position himself for greatness. He needs to create a game plan to help his undersized run defense.

Bears 1: Thomas Jones & Cedric Benson -- Running backs

Key to game is the Bears' strength vs. the Colts' weakness. The duo needs 150 yards, minimum. Approach 200, and they don't lose.

2: Rex Grossman -- Quarterback

No one gives him the edge vs. Manning, but if he manages game, his mates can slug out a win.

3: John Tait -- Left tackle

Colts right end Dwight Freeney, headed to free agency, has the ability to take over a game.

4: Brian Urlacher -- Middle linebacker

League's best defensive player against best offensive player. LB's instincts must take over for him to dominate near the line.

5: Ricky Manning Jr. -- Nickel back

First DB off bench has had postseason success and can put a lick on the fast receivers.

Colts 1: Peyton Manning -- Quarterback

For all his smarts and his quick release, watch his ball placement. No one is more accurate, which is what makes his receivers so dangerous after the catch.

2:Nick Harper (OR his replacement) -- Cornerback

A high ankle sprain will make him a liability if he plays. Whoever is at left cornerback, Grossman must pick on him.

3: Bob Sanders -- Free safety

He'll be up in the box early to help stop the run. If he's successful, the Bears are in trouble.

4: Joseph Addai -- Running back

Even Manning isn't effective when offense becomes one-dimensional. Stopping the rookie is key.

5: Marvin Harrison & Reggie Wayne -- Wide receivers

Pro Bowlers are going to make their catches. It's what they do after the catch that matters.

COLTS lead 22-17

Last meeting: Colts won 41-10 on Nov. 21, 2004, at Soldier Field.