Predictions: The joys of 6

Can 75 percent of our 'experts' be 100 percent wrong?

No doubt about it, Lovie Smith and Rex Grossman will paint the town orange if the defense pressures Peyton Manning and the offense dissects a porous Colts defense.

On paper, the Colts are the pick. But unlike most Super Bowls, this one won't play to form. Peyton Manning will march the Colts up and down the field, piercing holes in the Bears' cover-2 defense. But the Bears will make the big plays. Their ''Strip Club'' defense will take the ball away at key times. Although the Colts have been efficient in the red zone, they will have to settle for several Adam Vinatieri field goals. Rex Grossman will play it safe and let his offensive line open holes for Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. When Grossman needs to pass, he will exploit the Colts' concern at left corner, where Nick Harper is questionable because of a high ankle sprain. On special teams, a Devin Hester return will set up at least one score, and the Bears' crack coverage units will force a costly fumble. When it's over, Manning will be seeking his first title, and Grossman's critics will get off his back -- at least until training camp opens. Bears 27, Colts 22.

The Bears' demolition of the Patriots in Super Bowl XX was one of the most-watched events in television history. I predict the ratings for XLI could make a run at the top spot of all time. And the Bears will win. Why? Because they have 15 wins this season, a dynamic running game, almost no injuries (they have adapted fairly well to the loss of Mike Brown and Tommie Harris), and Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are at their peaks. No one can stop Peyton Manning, but Rex Grossman is like the annoying little brother who somehow gets the cookies. Bears 28, Colts 21.

With the possible exception of close relatives and chest-thumping fans, everyone expects the Bears to lose. Why? Because Peyton Manning finally has put his big-game blundering behind him, and his time has arrived. Throw in a few other factors, including Rex Grossman's inexperience, and it's easy to see why the Colts are favored. This reasoning neglects to take the Bears' defense and special teams into account. I believe the defense will make Manning miserable, Devin Hester will run like crazy and Grossman will have an excellent game. Bears 30, Colts 21.

Football is the ultimate team sport in which one player (Peyton Manning) or one unit (the Colts' offense) isn't supposed to be able to dominate a team effort. The Colts' offense is the best in the game, but the Bears' special teams, defense and offense are the next best units in that order. Special teams is a lopsided battle in the Bears' favor, and they should operate with decent field position. The defense needs to create big plays as it has all season. Rex Grossman will benefit from the decided advantage the Bears' running game will have over the Colts' woeful run defense. Grossman can attack the left corner spot in the Colts' secondary, which he will have to do early in the game when Bob Sanders steps up in the box to stop the run. Bears 27, Colts 24.

If defenses win championships, then the Bears did everything they could on the way to Super Bowl XLI. Jerry Angelo stocked the defense with more talent in the draft last April when onlookers were clamoring for offense. It's the disparity in the offenses, though, and Peyton Manning that makes you hold your breath. If both dimensions of the Colts' offense are working, they can score in the 40s on anyone. But you can't score when you don't have the ball. The Bears' offensive line has a chance to pound the ball straight into football history. A plus-1 edge in turnovers and 175 yards rushing might just do the trick for the Bears. They've broken the huddle with a ''world champs'' chant for what seems like a year. Bears 27, Colts 24.

As soon as the Colts beat the Patriots two weeks ago, my initial reaction was the Bears were in trouble. I just boiled it down to Peyton Manning vs. Rex Grossman, and that contest isn't close. I thought Vegas' seven-point spread seemed about right. But I can't ignore the fact that somewhere in my being, I'm still a Bears fan. You can't grow up rooting for a team every Sunday and suddenly turn off the switch for the sake of objectivity when you become a sportswriter. And that part of me that's a fan was skeptical, and still is, especially about Rex. But as these last two weeks dragged on, my opinion has shifted. I think the Bears' defense and special teams will prove decisive. Then again, as Rex said, I'm part of the ''ignorant'' crowd. Bears 31, Colts 27.

Tony Dungy and Peyton Manning appear to be ready, willing and able to show why most prognosticators are picking them to rewrite the 'choker' story line.

Do not confuse honesty as some sort of parochial dissing. I would love to see this city celebrate another Super Bowl conquest, if only to officially leave the 1985 Bears in the Reagan era and create new memories. So to make sure that happens, I'll do what I did two weeks ago and, yep, pick against the boys. The quarterbacking disparity will prove too problematic, with Peyton Manning cutting that secondary meat via the neglected Marvin Harrison and dangerous Dallas Clark. Rex Grossman will throw two early interceptions, putting the Bears in an early hole before rallying behind the running game and a Devin Hester touchdown return. But the Colts are blessed with the championship karma of Adam Vinatieri, who kicks a late field goal in a victory. Colts 31, Bears 27.

This is nearly an impossible game to predict with confidence. Both teams looked unbeatable early this season, and then both looked very beatable. If the Bears' defense is as good as it was against New Orleans, then no one can beat it. But I don't think the Bears get enough pressure on Peyton Manning. Devin Hester could be a big difference-maker because the Bears' special teams are much better. Cedric Benson can pound on the Colts, too. And I even look for Good Rex to show up. But this could be Manning's big moment. He is finally free of the whole postseason-choker thing. He can pick apart a cover-2 defense, especially without a lot of Bear pressure on him. Colts 27, Bears 24 (OT).