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Cubs can win losers' bracket

Piniella's ballclub is lucky and resilient enough to capture the weak NL Central

August 14, 2007
After a 20-game stretch in which his team won only nine games, Lou Piniella uttered the understatement of the season.

''We're fortunate to be a game and a half out of first place,'' Piniella said.

The Cubs are oh so fortunate -- and lucky to call the National League Central home.

If not for the generous nature of the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, who have been losing at roughly the same pace as the Cubs, Piniella's team would have fallen miles behind by now. In every other division, the Cubs' 60 wins would put them in third or fourth place. Instead, the North Side wonders find themselves in contention for the division title and a trip to the playoffs. Try as they might, they can't seem to play themselves out of the race.

With an overall record of 60-57, a post-All-Star-break mark of 16-14 and home/road splits of 30-28 and 30-29, the Cubs would seem to have no business vying for a division title. But sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. It's like Kerry Wood said after Sunday's loss, the Cubs' eighth in their last 11 games: ''Thank God that Milwaukee loses when we lose.''

It's almost enough to make you believe in destiny. Maybe someone up there is pulling strings so the Cubs can make it to the playoffs. Not that I'm buying into that theory, but I can understand why others might. If Cubs fans are feeling like this is a magical season, I can't blame them. It doesn't seem to matter how poorly the Cubs play. The division is theirs to win -- or should I say theirs to lose?

Need to be rude hosts
Don't get me wrong -- it won't be easy. With about seven weeks left in the regular season, there are plenty of big series ahead. Starting tonight at Wrigley Field, for instance, the Cubs will play the pesky Cincinnati Reds for three games, followed by the don't-look-now-but-they're-gaining-on-you St. Louis Cardinals for four. There's nothing like a little divisional fun in August.

I don't know about you, but I think this would be an excellent time for the Cubs to claim Wrigley Field as their own. While they have been playing better at home after a miserable start, the Friendly Confines remain too inviting for visitors. This would be a good week to send the Cardinals a strong message, something along the lines of, ''You've had your fun, now crawl back to your cesspool.''

No matter how tight the division race might get between now and season's end, it sure beats waiting until next year, doesn't it? After the Cubs got off to such a lousy start, the season seemed over in May. Remember when Alfonso Soriano was a bust? And Carlos Zambrano was horrible? And Michael Barrett was behind the plate, and no one wanted to pitch to him? And Piniella seemed more confused by the day? A lot has changed since then.

Remember when Wood was on the disabled list? And Cesar Izturis was the shortstop? And Carlos Marmol was in Iowa? And Ryan Theriot was a backup? And Jacque Jones was on the trading block? Despite their recent slide, the Cubs are far better today than they were in April and May. They have played fabulously well in stretches. And if they were to get hot at the right time -- say, in October? -- talk about good fortune.

As Jim Hendry continues to monitor the waiver wire, likely in vain, for a player who can help his team, Soriano's quad muscle continues to heal. If the team can stay close until he returns -- and that shouldn't be too difficult, as this is the NL Central we're talking about -- the offense should be good enough. I'm much more worried about the pitching. If the Cubs are to become a team of destiny, sooner or later they will need some magical pitching performances. Then again, Ted Lilly's entire season has been pretty magical, hasn't it?

Nice to have Big Z around
The good news about the Cubs' pitching is that every other team in the league is hurting for good pitching. At least the Cubs have Zambrano, who is as good as it gets. As for the bullpen, well, maybe Shuffling Lou's closer-by-committee system will be a rousing success.

The Cubs might be lucky to reside in the Central, but they also have shown far more resiliency than I expected. If they can hang on until Soriano returns, and if Aramis Ramirez can play through his wrist pain, and if the starting pitching can hold its own, and if the bullpen manages to do more good than harm, I believe they will win the division.

Hey, someone has to.