Will the real 'D' stand up?

Bears rank 11th in NFL stats, but 22nd in Lovie's preferred 'Aikman efficiency ratings'

The progress of the Bears' defense has been treacherously betrayed by the man running it. The supposed improvement in the NFL rankings this year -- they jumped from 16th to 11th after beating woeful Cleveland on Sunday -- is nothing but a mirage.

Sure, you take progress where you find it, even in a hollow run up the table to the defense's highest ranking since the Super Bowl year. Problem is, the league's defensive rankings are based on yards allowed. Bears coach Lovie Smith much prefers the Aikman efficiency ratings devised by former Dallas Cowboys quarterback Troy Aikman, who teamed with statisticians Rick Odioso and Jim Henzler to develop a formula for rating NFL teams based on multiple categories. The Aikman ratings are determined by incorporating yards allowed per rush and per pass, the number of third-down conversions allowed and total first downs given up. Throw in adjusted points (total scoring minus points from returns and safeties), red-zone performance and turnovers created and you've got a better indicator of what a defense is all about, according to Smith.

Does it sound confusing? Not to Smith, who actually includes a paragraph in his biography in the team's media guide that lists where the defense has finished in the Aikman ratings since Smith's arrival. And why not? Yards schmards. It's the overall play of the defense that matters most. Not to mention the fact the Bears have finished 11th, first, second, 14th and eighth in the Aikman ratings since Smith's arrival while they have been 21st, second, fifth, 28th and 21st in yards allowed, according to the NFL.

You can see the pattern. The Bears are a lot better under Aikman's formula than simply in terms of yards allowed ... until this year.

Hovering just outside the top 10 yards allowed, the Bears are a woeful group according to the Aikman ratings, currently ranking 22nd in the NFL. How can something like this happen with Smith the play-caller for the defense?

It all comes down to one familiar problem, the failure to get off the field on third-and-long.

Cleveland completed just 1-of-11 third-down attempts against the Bears, but that doesn't change the ugly fact that the defense has been allowing teams to convert at an alarming rate all season. The Bears rank 31st in the 32-team NFL in third-and-long conversions, allowing teams a new set of downs 32.1 percent of the time. On third-and-6-to-9 it's even worse with opponents converting 47.8 percent of the time.

Combine the two statistics and the Bears defense is dead last in stopping teams on third-and-long, defined by statisticians as third-and-six-plus yards. Those are the downs in which the Bears most often can be found in Cover-2. That scheme seems to be a particularly easy on for veteran quarterbacks to beat.

All of which makes Sunday's showdown with Arizona an interesting game in which to determine if the defense really does have its mojo back. Forcing the Browns into five takeaways is one thing. Can the Bears do it again against the Cardinals vaunted passing attack led by former league MVP Kurt Warner. That's the same Warner who threw five interceptions last week with a ton of passes batted and deflected at the line of scrimmage in a bad home loss to Carolina.

Can the Bears turn Warner into Jake Delhomme or will the Cardinals quarterback be much more careful with the ball? The Bears used cornerback Nathan Vasher as a safety against the pass-challenged Browns, who completed just seven passes in the game and seemed to throw over the middle just once -- a pass that was intercepted by Danieal Manning. Vasher figures to get more action this week.

If cornerback Charles Tillman was asked to follow Browns rookie Mohammad Massaquoi around the field on Sunday, you can bet he'll be stalking Larry Fitzgerald this week -- a much more difficult task. Swapping Hunter Hillenmeyer and Nick Roach at middle and strong-side linebacker eased communication problems and helped the defense line up correctly.

Can the changes pay dividends against a multi-dimensional offensive attack? Those are the teams that have bothered every defense, including the Bears this year. Being at home should help, since the Bears are unbeaten at Soldier Field, but the Cardinals are a strange team this year in that they are unbeaten on the road against Jacksonville, Seattle and the Giants, but have struggled at home.

Which Bears defense will show up -- the one ranked No. 11 in the league or the one that's 22nd in Lovie's heart?

Mike Mulligan and Sun-Times colleague Brian Hanley host ''The Mully and Hanley Show'' from 5 to 9 a.m. weekdays on WSCR-AM (670).

11thNFL YARDS ALLOWED Elevated the Bears (previously 16th overall) with their 30-6 win Sunday.22ndAIKMAN RATINGS Relies heavily on defense and is less kind to the 4-3 Bears.WHERE THE BEARS RANK -- WHICH IS RIGHT?