Bank on Bears to be run over again
When I go to the window with an NFL investment opportunity, I rarely jump on trends. I mean, what do the Bears' six consecutive humiliating losses in San Francisco have to do with tonight's game?
If anything, I favor bucking trends and betting on streaks to end. So do I take the Bears and the 3 against the also-spiraling 49ers?
Can't do it. Can't win with 'em.
I'm picking Team Singletary for the same reason I played Arizona on Sunday: the Bears' defense isn't good enough to hang with top-tier playmakers. If the Cardinals, the league's 31st-ranked running team, can reel off 182 yards -- Cedric Benson-like numbers -- it stands to reason Frank Gore can, too.
Gore is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and soon will pass the 5,000-yard mark in his fifth season.
While we continue to wait for that upgraded Bears offense, the Bears have been exposed defensively every week since their Week 2 win over Pittsburgh. The 30-6 win over the Browns two Sundays ago is stricken from the records and does not count because they don't play professional football in Cleveland anymore.
And now comes the Jerry Angelo-Lovie Smith defense, on display for the nation tonight, as it will be in the next game when the Bears host the Philadelphia Eagles on NBC the night of Nov. 22. They have the 7-1 Vikings in Week 12.
These have the potential to be embarrassing moments for the architects of this mess.
Yeah, it's a pass-happy, touchdown-happy NFL these days, but teams that can't stop the run this year are at rock bottom. The league's worst five run defenses (Kansas City, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Buffalo) are 8-32 collectively.
The Bears are now ranked 23rd defending the run. Yikes.
I'm wondering who would win the taffy pull between Smith's run defense and Ron Turner's 28th-ranked rushing offense. Maybe we'd see Matt Forte finally break a tackle, only because the too-light Hunter Hillenmeyer or Charles Tillman grabbed at shoulder pads.
The 49ers stop the run. They're fourth in the NFL, allowing just 93 yards per game and a stingy 3.4 yards per carry. The biggest reason is linebacker Patrick Willis, only in his third season and arguably the best inside linebacker in the game. Willis gets off of and around blocks and is a textbook-perfect tackler who made 174 stops in his rookie season of 2007.
Who's your favorite Bears defender from the Class of '07? Dan Bazuin? Michael Okwo, maybe? Is it Kevin Payne?
I can't blame 49ers tight end Vernon Davis for yapping about the Bears' front seven this week. He's right. And after several bad losses in succession, Davis just raised the level of expectations on a franchise that has been moribund and needs a culture change.
Of course the 49ers expect to run on the Bears. So do I.
I'm ignoring the last six laughers at Candlestick Park. San Francisco outscored the Bears 229-36 in those easy romps. This one won't be so easy, but until the Bears stop a professional running game, I'm out.
Gimme the Niners. I'm laying the points.
Dan McNeil hosts a sports-talk show from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. weekdays on WSCR-AM (670).