Eight Belles out to ring up another ladies' day
LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- As sweaty and surly gave way to rainy and surly at Churchill Downs on Friday, two young ladies suddenly loomed intent on stealing all of the thunder and burgoo of Kentucky Derby weekend 2008.
The first did her part when Proud Spell ($8.80) -- from the barn of bowlegged Kentucky cowboy Larry Jones -- splashed to a five-length victory in the $581,560 Kentucky Oaks. Ridden by Gabriel Saez, the daughter of Proud Citizen willingly stalked pace-setter Bsharpsonata through splits of :48.86 and 1:12.95 before exploding to win the mile-and-one-eighth classic in 1:50.01.
(AP)
(AP)
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Opening Day at Arlington
Eight Belles -- the second debutante -- will get her chance to complete the amazing double today when Jones saddles her for the 134th Run for the Roses (coverage starts at 3 p.m. on Ch. 5). She is the only filly in the Derby and, if she wins, Jones will become just the third trainer to nail an Oaks-Derby double. H.J. Thompson did it in 1933, and Ben Jones did it twice (1949, 1952). No one ever has done it with two fillies.
''The Oaks gives us tremendous confidence heading into [the Derby],'' Jones said. ''These two train together and are about equal in ability. We scratched Eight Belles out of the Oaks, and now she can show the world what she can do.''
Jones dropped a broad hint to the Derby world about what he can do in his debut last May. He dispatched the front-running Hard Spun (10-1). Under Mario Pino, the speedy sophomore almost wired the other 19 colts in the field. Only the strawberry-letter rail trip of Calvin Borel and eventual winner Street Sense derailed the Jones initiative. Hard Spun finished second.
''If we had had any kind of luck or help from the other 17 horses that the winner passed, we win,'' Jones said. ''You would think in a 20-horse race, someone is going to shut off the rail. But, that's horse racing.''
Saez, 20, will be making his first Derby start. He is a native of Panama and a graduate of the Laffit Pincay Jr. riding school in the Central American republic.
As expected, Rick Dutrow's Big Brown (7-2) opened as the favorite in Friday's advance wagering. The unbeaten colt was the 3-1 chalk in Mike Battaglia's official morning-line despite winding up with Post 20. No Derby starter has won from there since 1929. He is named for the big brown trucks of United Parcel Service, which uses the Louisville airport as a key hub.
Most surprise first-day action came on Eight Belles (8-1), who was 20-1 in Battaglia's line. She was the fourth choice on Friday, behind Big Brown, Colonel John (4-1) and Pyro (5-1). The complete first-day odds (with post-position number, which also is the program number):
1. Cool Coal Man (36-1); 2. Tale of Ekati (45-1); 3. Anak Nakal (57-1); 4. Court Vision (14-1); 5. Eight Belles (8-1); 6. Z Fortune (17-1); 7. Big Truck (20-1); 8. Visionaire (22-1); 9. Pyro (5-1); 10. Colonel John (4-1).
11. Z Humor (67-1); 12. Smooth Air (40-1); 13. Bob Black Jack (26-1); 14. Monba (30-1); 15. Adriano (24-1); 16. Denis of Cork (27-1); 17. Cowboy Cal (42-1); 18. Recapturetheglory (47-1); 19. Gayego (21-1); 20. Big Brown (7-2).
The Derby is carded as the 10th of 12 races on the Churchill program. The first race is at 10 a.m. with the Derby post at 5:04. Heavy rains in Louisville let up Friday night but were expected to resume this morning and end by midday. Churchill trackmen were sealing the strip after Friday's program. Said ex-jock Jerry Bailey, a two-time Derby winner: ''It should be like a highway [today].''
Kentucky eyes remained on Big Brown and his brash trainer. Dutrow, who will be saddling his first KD starter but has predicted victory despite the poor post. More seasoned Derby-ites continued to voice caution and pessimism.
Said Barclay Tagg -- who won with Funny Cide in 2003 and has Tale of Ekati and Big Truck in today: ''I think it's a wide-open race. Who knows? I don't think anyone really knows except Dutrow. He, at least, says what he thinks. I'm not knocking him for it. He's a friend of mine. I like Dickie Dutrow. He seems to know what's going on better than I do.''
A critical element in the race will be the start of Big Brown and the early decision-making of jockey Kent Desormeaux. The colt has never been farther back than second in the calls of any of his three career starts. He's won all three by a total of 29 lengths. Today, he has speedball Recapturetheglory starting two posts inside of him (No. 18) under brilliant gate jockey E.T. Baird. Asked what he expected the early half-mile to be (before Friday's rain), a quietly confident Baird said: ''Forty-five [seconds], maybe forty-five and change.''
The last Derby champ to wire the field was War Emblem (2002), who completed the half in :47.04. No Derby winner since has been closer than fourth at the half. Said Nick Zito, who has trained two Derby winners and will saddle Cool Coal Man and Anak Nakal: ''I don't see Recapturetheglory not going for the lead. I don't know what's going to happen then, but I'd say it's very interesting.''
Said Desormeaux: ''For me it works out perfect because I can catbird someone, whoever leads me into the first turn. If not, when the doors open, I'm just going to feel it. Pace makes the race, but my horse's ultimate cruising pace, that's where I want to set him up to be. Big Brown will tell me where it is.''
Spatial numerologists will want to note the order of post positions in the winning superfectas from the last five Derbies (2003-07). They were: 5-11-4-3 (2003, 16 starters); 13-3-8-1 (2004, 18 starters); 10-18-12-17 (2005, 20 starters); 8-13-2-1 (2006, 20 starters); and 7-8-2-5 (2007, 20 starters). That means, throw out Giacomo's wild 50-1 upset in 2005, and 13 of 16 superfecta finishers have started inside Post 10, including seven of the last eight.
The four ODage qualifiers in the field are: Z Fortune, Recapturetheglory, Gayego and Big Brown. In Friday's Sun-Times, my predicted order of finish was: Z Fortune-Colonel John-Pyro-Gayego. The updated pick is Z Fortune-Eight Belles-Colonel John-Pyro.
