NFL Playoffs preview, picks

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Saints quarterback Drew Brees throws a pass to Jed Collins for a first down against the the Detroit Lions during first quarter action of an NFL playoff on Saturday, Jan. 7 2011 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Sun Herald, Amanda McCoy)

BEST BET
SAINTS AT 49ers

Time: 3:30 p.m. Sat., Fox-32. Line: Saints by 3. Total: 471/2.Records (overall/ATS): Saints 14-3/13-4; 49ers 13-3/11-4-1.

One of the most overlooked factors in judging NFL performance is that teams play disparate schedules. Everything’s relative.

The 49ers’ defense ranked second in the NFL in points allowed and fourth in yards and was drawing comparisons to some of the best defenses of all time. But the 49ers also played some really bad offensive teams. Eleven of their 16 opponents ranked 15th or lower in total offense. Only three were ranked in the top 10. The 49ers allowed 22.3 points per game to the four best offensive teams they played and 11.7 to the other 12.

The Bears, on the other hand, were ranked 16th in total defense. But they played 10 offenses that ranked in the top 10. The average offense they faced was ranked 12th.

Relative to the competition, the Bears’ defense was statistically equal to the 49ers’. It allowed 277 net points (points allowed minus defensive points) against offenses that averaged scoring 372 (74.5 percent). The 49ers allowed 222 net points against teams that averaged 297.6 (74.6 percent).

So the 49ers might be a little more challenged against the Saints’ offense than it might appear. Of course, it works the other way, too. The Saints piled up their points against weak defenses — 12 of their 16 opponents were ranked in the bottom half of the NFL.

But they still put 40 on the Texans (No. 2 in points allowed), 23 on the Jaguars (No. 6) and 26 and 45 on the Falcons (No. 12). Relatively speaking, that’s hard to ignore.

Pick: Saints 27, 49ers 12.

broncos at patriots

Time: 7 p.m. Sat., Ch. 2.

Line: Patriots by 131/2.

Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 13-3/9-6-1; Broncos 9-8/8-8-1.

Fast fact: Pats had 451 yards with 0 turnovers in 41-23 win over Broncos on Dec. 18.

Outlook: Patriots’ last 3 playoff losses have been to teams they had beaten earlier in the season, but familiarity will help here. Pats outscored the Broncos 27-0 after taking an early hit in Denver.

Pick: Patriots 38, Broncos 20.

texans at ravens

Time: Noon Sun., Ch. 2.

Line: Ravens by 71/2.

Records (overall/ATS): Texans 11-6/12-5; Ravens 12-4/8-7-1.

Fast fact: Ravens are 15-1 at home SU the last 2 seasons, but 7-8-1 ATS.

Outlook: Texans WR Andre Johnson pulled rookie QB T.J. Yates through last week against the Bengals, but the Ravens are a big step up. Ravens won 29-14 in Houston on Oct. 16 when Matt Schaub played but Johnson did not.

Pick: Ravens 23, Texans 10.

giants at packers

Time: 3:30 p.m. Sun., Fox-32.

Line: Packers by 71/2.

Records (overall/ATS): Giants 10-7/9-7-1; Packers 15-1/11-5.

Fast fact: Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards, 4 TDs in Dec. 4 win over Giants.

Outlook: Hard to tell how the Packers will respond after the tragic death of the son of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin this week. Giants’ 28th-ranked defense has allowed an average of 293 yards and 9.3 points with 13 sacks in last 3 games.

Pick: Packers 27, Giants 23.