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Sunday, May 27, 2012

Super Bowl predictions

Updated: February 5, 2011 8:20PM



RICK MORRISSEY

24-17 Green Bay

RICK TELANDER

23-20 Green Bay

SEAN JENSEN

27-24 Steelers

NEIL HAYES

31-27 Steelers

MIKE MULLIGAN

24-20 Green Bay

MARK POTASH

31-28 Steelers

PACKERS VS. STEELERS

Line: Packers by 21/2. Total: 441/2.

Records (overall/ATS): Packers 13-6/12-7; Steelers 14-4/12-6.

Fast facts: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has a 126.3 passer rating in seven indoor games the last two seasons (16 TDs, 1 INT) — with a low of 110.6.

Outlook: Stopping the run is no guarantee of slowing either Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger. Both average 100-plus passer ratings when their team rushes below its average, and both can handle a fierce pass rush — Roethlisberger was sacked five times by the Packers last year and threw for 503 yards and three TDs in a 37-36 victory. Steelers are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS under Mike Tomlin with more than a week to prepare; Packers are 5-1 SU/6-0 ATS under Mike McCarthy in the same circumstance. Though they rank 1-2 in scoring defense, both offenses have intimate knowledge of the other’s defense — hence the 73 points in the 2009 matchup. Steelers’ aggressiveness downfield on first down could put pressure on Packers DBs; Packers were called for six defensive penalties against the Steelers last year. Is it possible anti-Roethlisberger sentiment has skewed the line? Late wise-guy money on the Steelers could tilt it back by game time. Two props to keep in mind: the over on 531/2 points is +280; overtime is +800.

Mark Potash

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