Piniella all ready to roll playoff dice
Pitching staff will make Lou look like a genius -- or a dolt if it gets lit up
After a 6-2 run that included four victories in five games against the St. Louis Cardinals -- ending with a 4-2 triumph Sunday -- what has been determined? Well, the first-place Cubs picked up a one-game lead in the National League Central.
Now, for a really important week that could determine much more, we turn to this week, which officially begins tonight with a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field. This series will be significant because Piniella is taking one of his biggest gambles of the season, pitching co-aces Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly on three days' rest.
Just don't mention to Piniella that this bold move is such a gamble.
''What gamble is it?'' he said Sunday. ''There's no gamble to this. We shorten them up, and then the next time out they have their sixth day. Toward the end of the season, what you want to do is pitch your best pitchers, right? And that's exactly what we're doing.''
If you look at what the Cardinals have done, relying on a six-man rotation with disastrous results down the stretch, then you can see Piniella's point. The problem is, this is uncharted territory for Zambrano, whose psyche is as fragile as Mark Prior's arm.
''It's my first time doing this,'' Zambrano said. ''We'll see how it works. I feel better when it's three or four days.''
How would he know, considering he never has done it before?
''I know my arm, I know my body,'' Zambrano said. ''Every time I play catch on my fourth day, I feel good.''
If the move works, Piniella will look like a genius, especially with the sour recent results from left-hander Sean Marshall and the scary notion of relying too heavily on veteran Steve Trachsel down the stretch. Keep in mind, Trachsel was acquired from the Baltimore Orioles on Aug. 31 as an insurance policy -- and it's always better never to have to use your insurance policy.
So Piniella is pushing his pitchers at a time when many starters could use a rest.
''If we have to adjust, we can adjust because we've got days off later on. I don't know how you play 35 games in 34 days, and then the last nine days of the season, they give you two days off. Somebody's not looking at the situation as carefully as possible. I'm sure they've got 30 teams to look at as opposed to just one. But you can use the days off in the warmer weather, as opposed to at the end, when the weather's getting cooler and adrenaline carries you.''
Actually, the warm-weather forecast for Chicago this week favors the Cubs -- especially Zambrano and leadoff hitter Alfonso Soriano, who each struggled during the cold days of April. A warm week in Chicago followed by a series in balmy Miami against the Florida Marlins to start next week should provide a lift.
But only if Zambrano and Lilly prove Piniella right this week in what the manager, rightly so, is calling the Cubs' most important homestand of the year.
Zambrano entered Sunday having thrown a league-leading 3,391 pitches. His next outing, should he work at least two innings, will give him at least 200 innings in each of the last five years.
He probably could use a full four days off between starts now that he is riding a two-start winning streak after losing his previous five.
''It's like when I'm running. The first five, 10 minutes it's boring, but when I get to 20 minutes, 30 minutes, I'm not tired. I feel better. That's how I feel when I'm pitching.''
If Zambrano bombs Tuesday, he could put more pressure on Lilly to rescue Piniella's plan.
The Cubs have won Lilly's last four starts as the left-hander has gone 3-0 with a 3.67 ERA to match his career high with 15 victories. He is 4 1/3 innings away from matching his career high, and his 3,042 pitches were the 16th-most in the NL entering Sunday.
Are they healthy enough for the grind of short rest in mid- September?
''Oh, they're healthy enough, sure,'' Piniella said. ''Pitch counts are fine. Their pitch counts have been good.
''I talked to both pitchers about it. I wouldn't have done this without talking to them. They're both very comfortable with it. This is one of the reasons we watched pitch counts very carefully all year. This is one of the reasons we've always given people extra days all year, so if we need to get into this type of situation, we have an option.
''I think we're doing the right thing.''