Tale of two failures -- so far

Cubs spent big, White Sox held line and results are bad on both sides of town, but North Siders still could find their way to postseason play

The Cubs spent $300 million, defining a new pricey market for free agents and saying they were going for the World Series. The Sox laughed at that, decided not to play along, or pay along, saying that overpaying now hurts later. So they went with what they thought was the smart plan: not paying for free agents.

One city, opposite approaches. And now that the first month of the season has passed, which one looks right?

The Sox are 12-13. The Cubs are 12-14.

Equal failures. Two philosophies, no bullpens.

We're still in that time when a hot week can change everyone's mood. Slow starts and cold-weather slumps can end now. Fly balls will start sailing in the warm air. So things can change.

But both teams had the day off Thursday, and it seemed like a good time to take a look at what we've got.

You can't draw conclusions this early. I'm going to do it, anyway. Consider this half-prediction, half-conclusion. Feel free to clip it out and throw it back at me in September.

The Cubs are going to make the playoffs and the Sox are not.

The Sox look old and tired. The team is not built for small ball, smart ball, Ozzieball, or whatever term the Sox are using now. It is built to hit homers or chug along one base at a time.

GM Kenny Williams tried to build for the future and win in the present, placing his feet in two ponds. But the present looks shaky, and the future is one big question mark.

That's not what a team should look like two years after winning the World Series.

The Cubs look like a weightlifter who has built up several muscles religiously and completely neglected others. So they have huge biceps, bird legs, great abs and a pencil neck. It doesn't exactly fit together. And when you cull together parts without a system, you have no identity.

But they can win 85 games, and that might be enough to win a weak division in a weak league.

The Sox can win more, but not enough against their division. They'll begin selling off players around the All-Star break.

The Cubs' philosophy was better than the Sox' in the offseason. It's not that you can expect to win with free agents only. And as a business model, the start-from-scratch-and-overpay-for-everyone-and-drive-up-the-market plan isn't the best.

But you have to consider where these teams were coming from. The Cubs were a disaster last year, and had almost nothing in the farm system to build with, having gone so long with no plan.

The only thing they could do, the only hope they could have for this year, was to buy free agents. And if that meant overpaying, and driving the market, then so what?

But you can't fill all of the gaps that way, and the Cubs have big ones: middle relief, true leadoff hitter, outfield defense, fifth starter.

Checkbook still open?

The Sox, on the other hand, were a World Series-ready team that needed a little help. But they re-signed Scott Podsednik when it was time to let him go. He came without the new-market price tag, and they also tried to rebuild on the fly with prospects.

It's not likely to work in the short term, or long. When they dumped Freddy Garcia, a good idea, they didn't get enough back. Garcia was a frontline pitcher, and the Cubs had driven the market for them into the atmosphere.

If Ted Lilly is worth $40 million, and Gil Meche even more, then Garcia could have returned more than one good prospect and one mid-level one.

Williams was trying to bring in young players for the future, fit a few in now. But they're not ready, so the team got old.

Meanwhile, Mark Buehrle, Joe Crede, Jon Garland and Jermaine Dye will be free agents soon.

Will the Sox pay new-market dollars to keep them? That doesn't appear to be the plan, even though they have nearly 3 million fans, great radio, TV and stadium deals, and a corporate-heavy city that can fill skyboxes and ad space. Yet they've decided to try to build slowly with prospects. It takes a miracle to build a rotation that way.

Using their smart-plan, the Sox, I think, are going to break this team up if it doesn't win soon. Sell off future free agents for low-priced prospects and start over.

That would mark the end of the World Series team.

The Sox are going to hit better. When that happens, they won't look so lethargic. But Darin Erstad is past his time. And he, Dye and Jim Thome are injuries waiting to happen, as their careers suggest. Meanwhile, Jose Contreras got old last year.

And can anyone bunt?

The Cubs, flawed as they are, have bought enough pieces.

Three hundred million dollars for 85 wins isn't a smashing success. Sooner or later the real Jason Marquis will demand his uniform back form the Cy Young-level pitcher who has been using it so far.

But Carlos Zambrano is going to pitch well and Alfonso Soriano, with his $136 million, will look like himself.

The Sox could have owned this town. But two philosophies, two opposing arrows, two directions.

It's only a month into the season. But write it down.