AAA predicts first decline in holiday travel in 6 years

For the first time since 2002, the AAA Motor Club forecasts a decline in the number of Americans traveling during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Approximately 41 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a decrease of 600,000 travelers (1.4 percent) from last year’s total of 41.6 million, a release Tuesday from AAA Chicago said. This is the first decline in Thanksgiving holiday travel since 2002 and is the fourth consecutive travel holiday this year with a year-to-year decline in the number of travelers.

“The overall state of the economy continues to present real challenges for some Americans looking to travel this Thanksgiving,” said Beth Mosher, director of public affairs for AAA Chicago. However, significantly lower gasoline prices than earlier this year, could provide a strong impetus for many to travel this Thanksgiving season.

While the number of those planning to travel by car or plane have decreased, the number of those who are traveling via cheaper modes such as train or bus are increasing, according to AAA.

More than 33.2 million Americans (81 percent of all holiday travelers) expect to travel by automobile, a 1.2 percent decrease from the 33.6 million people who drove a year ago. Auto travelers this weekend will experience a welcome break in fuel prices. Currently, the Illinois average is $2.11 for regular unleaded gasoline, which is $1.04 lower than a year ago. In Indiana, motorists will pay $1.89, which is $1.15 lower than they paid last year.

Nearly 4.54 million (11 percent of holiday travelers) plan to travel by airplane, a 7.2 percent decrease from the 4.89 million travelers who flew last year.

In Illinois, more than 1.5 million people, or 4.2 percent of the population will be traveling for the holiday weekend. Of those, 1.16 million will be driving and 259,500 will be flying.

Approximately 3.26 million Americans (8 percent of holiday travelers) intend to travel by train, bus or other mode of transportation. That is an increase of 5.8 percent (or 180,000 travelers) when compared to the 3.08 million who traveled by a mode other than automobile or airplane last year.

According to AAA’s Leisure Travel Index (LTI), which is based on available rates this holiday, Thanksgiving holiday travelers can expect to pay more for airfares and car rentals this year by eight percent and four percent, respectively.

Thanksgiving travelers across the country, however, will find bargains when looking to book their hotel stay this year. Rates for AAA Three Diamond hotels are down an average of 10 percent compared to last year.