Obama flip-flops -- from up in poll to down
2008 RACE | Survey credits aggressive McCain attacks
Republican John McCain's tactic of beating up on Democrat Barack Obama is starting to work.
That's the conclusion of pollster John Zogby, whose latest Reuters/Zogby presidential survey puts McCain 5 points in front. It's a reversal from a month ago, when the same poll had Obama ahead by 7.
(AP files)
"Since Obama returned from his overseas trip, it seems like McCain has thrown all the punches. Clearly, the blows have landed," Zogby said. "McCain has changed the dynamic of the race heading into the two conventions. . . . That puts more pressure on Obama to go to Denver and effectively define himself and McCain."
Three other recent polls, however, show Obama still leading McCain by 1 to 3 percentage points -- little or no change from a month ago.
The Obama campaign's response: "Despite any up or down movement in the polls, John McCain offers just more of the same at a time when the American people are looking to change the way business gets done in Washington," said spokesman Nick Shapiro.
Zogby said the change in his nationwide survey reflects the impact of McCain's recent ads and statements attempting to discredit Obama.
One of McCain's ads put Obama in the same celebrity category as Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. McCain also has questioned Obama's experience, criticized his opposition to offshore oil drilling and derided his overseas trip.
Obama had opposed offshore drilling, but now says he supports limited expansion. The shift, Zogby said, has not helped. "That hairline difference between nuance and what appears to be flip-flopping is hurting him with liberal voters," Zogby told Reuters.
Indeed, Obama's support among liberals fell 12 points, according to Zogby.
The Zogby poll also showed McCain with a 9-point edge over Obama on the critical question of who would best manage the economy -- an issue nearly half the voters said was their top concern.
A month ago it was Obama who had a 4-point edge over McCain on economic issues, an area where McCain has admitted a lack of expertise.
University of Chicago survey expert Tom W. Smith said the Zogby poll "sounds like something one has to at least consider looking at," but said he would take it more seriously if other polls confirmed the trend.
"You really want to see if other surveys are leaning in the same direction," said Smith.
Also, at this stage in the election, there is a lot of "fluctuation in voter intent," Smith said. He points out the impact of vice presidential picks and party conventions has yet to register with voters.
Indeed, Obama could see a poll "bounce" following next week's Democratic National Convention, according to the Gallup poll organization's Lydia Saad. "Of course the Republican convention starts four days after the close of the Democratic convention and could make any Democratic convention bounce for Obama short-lived," Saad said.
The Zogby telephone poll of 1,089 likely voters was taken Thursday through Saturday.