Indictment helps Topinka -- but how much?

Republican: 'Rezko is the governor's right-hand man'

If Gov. Blagojevich ever did the polka with former fund-raiser Tony Rezko, the governor better hope no one caught it on videotape.

Just as one of Republican Judy Baar Topinka's primary opponents filled the airwaves with commercials of her cutting a rug with former Gov. George Ryan, look for the state treasurer to do everything she can to make it clear that Rezko is Blagojevich's political dance partner.

Just as one of Republican Judy Baar Topinka's primary opponents filled the airwaves with commercials of her cutting a rug with former Gov. George Ryan, look for the state treasurer to do everything she can to make it clear that Rezko is Blagojevich's political dance partner.

"I think it will be extremely damaging to the governor's campaign because Tony Rezko is the governor's right-hand man," Topinka said moments before the indictment was unsealed. "He's had an influence on hiring. He's had an influence on personal finances. He's had an influence on the campaign. He's had a tremendous influence."

For months, Topinka has been banking on dramatic developments aimed at Blagojevich from the Dirksen Federal Building to energize her campaign and show potential donors her candidacy is worthy of their money.

She got her wish. But with less than four weeks before the Nov. 7 election, Topinka faces a difficult task. Trailing in the polls and lacking the Democratic incumbent's flush campaign fund, she must educate voters on who the obscure Rezko is and why his indictment negates Blagojevich's claims that he is a reformer.

"It's just not big enough to turn the tide, it seems to me," said John S. Jackson, a political science professor at the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. "An indictment against the governor from the feds would turn the tide, make it an even-Steven race. But the indictment of an associate? It's just not clear to me that it's in the same league."

Beyond overcoming Rezko's obscurity, the scheme U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald laid out Wednesday is almost Whitewater-like in its complexity. A $1,500 check to the governor's daughter from a friend whose wife later landed a cushy state job is far more simple to the casual observer.

That said, Rezko's 24-count indictment is troubling for the governor on many fronts. It may not be enough to tank his re-election, but it threatens to overshadow a second term if he wins.

Rezko is a man who had unparalleled access to the governor. If Rezko ultimately cooperated, he could divulge whether his alleged pay-to-play scheming occurred with the knowledge and blessing of the governor -- a question Blagojevich was quick to deny.

But if it did and any tainted funds found their way into Blagojevich's $12.2 million political war chest, the government could move against it, just as it did against Ryan's political fund. A similar move targeting Blagojevich's campaign kitty would cripple him politically and dry up a source of funds for a legal defense.

It is known that the feds also are examining Blagojevich's personal finances. Notably, Blagojevich has yet to explain the $39,000 in cash that Rezko helped funnel into the first family's personal bank account in 2004 through real estate deals in which he partnered with first lady Patti Blagojevich.

For now, however, Blagojevich can breathe a sigh of relief. The governor was not implicated in any wrongdoing Wednesday, and the campaign fund came through unscathed. But any calm may be illusory.

"I heard it more than one time [Wednesday] that Rod got lucky, but I don't think so," said one veteran Chicago Democratic lawmaker, who isn't sure the indictment is enough to swing the election away from Blagojevich. "This tightens the noose. It lays the groundwork for the feds to go after the campaign fund and him individually."