Who’s got momentum? Answer could determine the nominee

Sen. Hillary Clinton's victories over Sen. Barack Obama in Ohio and Texas on Tuesday leave the Democratic Party in a quandary.

Not even the final big primary in Pennsylvania April 22 will give either candidate enough delegates for the nomination. But nobody wants the issue to await an exceptionally late national convention in Denver the last week of August.

In the absence of a numerical majority of delegates, the nominee will be whichever candidate is presumed to have the most momentum. But who is to make that decision?

Certainly not the party's leaders. Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean has offered to step in and avoid a confrontation in Denver, but that was laughed off in both the Clinton and Obama camps. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid possess more prestige than Dean but not enough to dictate the party's nominee.

Instead, the selection of who has the momentum will have to be made by a consensus of delegates, with the lead taken by non-elected superdelegates. They will be guided in no small part by who wins in Pennsylvania, but the winner there will not be the automatic nominee.

What is in prospect is a long, contentious debate over which candidate is best equipped to defeat the Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, in November. Even before Tuesday's balloting, the arguments were being made.

For Clinton, she has finished first in high-population, battleground states that will decide the election: California, New York and New Jersey, plus the unopposed victories in Florida and Michigan, with a good chance to add Pennsylvania. Obama, it is argued, has won only his own Illinois among the big states, finishing first mainly in Republican states that cannot be won in November.

For Obama, he is the winner of more votes, more delegates and more states, winning 11 straight contests against Clinton until Tuesday night. Unlike Clinton, he can cut into the independent and even Republican voters.

The fervent wish among Democratic leaders is that the argument will not go on for too long and will be settled soon after Pennsylvania votes. What the party deplores is what the news media, perhaps the public and certainly the Republicans would welcome: an old-fashioned convention struggle with backroom deals and credentials fights.

The strong likelihood is that this fight will not happen.