Election prediction: Electoral votes will add up to Barack Obama victory
By RICHARD ROEPER November 4, 2012 4:34PM
Barack Obama, Chris Christie
Updated: December 6, 2012 6:23AM
Somewhere around the time President Barack Obama and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie were standing in unison, while members of Team Romney reportedly were purchasing items to be given away at a fund-raiser for storm victims, it hit me.
Somewhere around the time Donald Trump was bleating about the president missing the deadline and saying charities would suffer because of it — as if the money wasn’t Trump’s to do with what he pleases — it hit me.
Somewhere around the time Rush Limbaugh and Fox News were trying to drum up criticism of the federal government’s handling of disaster relief and recovery efforts, somewhere around the time Rudy Giuliani was saying the president should resign, somewhere around the time some GOPers tried to make political hay out of Obama saying re-electing him was the best “revenge,” it hit me.
POTUS has this thing wrapped up.
And the winner will be…
Election Day is right around the corner, though many of us have already exercised our right to vote early. (At least now we know Americans will wait in hours in line for something bigger than $300 gym shoes and $400 phones.)
In the popular vote, the polls say it’s a virtual tie — but on the only scoreboard that matters, the Electoral College, this column is projecting Barack Obama to score a relatively comfortable victory, thus becoming the first black American president who says he was born in Hawaii to be re-elected.
Please understand, we’re not talking about my preference. This is all about the cold hard business of predicting. If you handed me a suitcase of money and sent me to a casino where they allowed wagering on elections and I had to put all of it on one candidate in this race, I wouldn’t hesitate to put that money on Obama.
Of course it’s not Romney’s fault that allies such as Hannity, Limbaugh, Trump and Giuliani seem increasingly shrill and desperate in their criticism of Obama in the last week or so. Of course Romney couldn’t do anything about a force of nature that allowed the president to be presidential while the Mittster was relegated to the sidelines, comparing the massive undertaking on the East Coast with the time when he and his chums had to clean up a high school football field after a big game. (“The field was covered with rubbish and paper goods from people who’d had a big celebration there at the game.” Rubbish?)
The economy remains in distress. Much of the world is in (wait for this year’s keyword) tumult. Tens of millions of Americans are worried sick about health care issues. The glitter and giddiness of 2008 and “Hope and Change” have long worn off.
Look at a state such as Wisconsin, where Obama defeated John McCain by a margin of by 14 percentage points in 2008. It’s a virtual toss-up right now, meaning thousands of Wisconsites have either switched allegiances or are thinking: Give me a reason not to vote for Obama.
And yet I believe Obama will win Wisconsin by a few percentage points, just as he’ll score victories in four or five of the other six true “battleground” states still in play.
Let’s go to the roll call, with my prediction for each state and the number of electoral votes in play.
†Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas: Romney.
†California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia: Obama.
†Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana: Romney.
†Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota: Obama.
†Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska: Romney.
†Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York: Obama.
†North Carolina, North Dakota: Romney.
†Ohio: Obama (game over).
†Oregon, Pennsylvania (game really over), Rhode Island: Obama.
†South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah: Romney.
†Vermont, Virginia, Washington: Obama.
†West Virginia: Romney.
†District of Columbia: Obama
Final score in the Electoral College: Obama, 303, Romney 235.
And when it’s all over, a small but not tiny percentage of Americans will continue to believe Barack Obama is a foreign-born Socialist bent on destroying America, the government engineered Hurricane Sandy to give the president a crisis to handle in the stretch run, the mainstream media was overwhelmingly biased in its coverage of the election, and the election was probably rigged so real Americans couldn’t take back the country.