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Saturday, May 26, 2012

Tuesday will steer Lisa Madigan's future

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Carol Marin


The irony of our politics is that one of the most respected and popular politicians in Illinois is the daughter of one of the most unpopular, even despised, politicians in this state.

And the election on Tuesday will determine what new direction they could take in their political careers.

Lisa Madigan's re-election as Illinois attorney general is a foregone conclusion. She opted to run again for the office she has held since 2003 despite a full-court press by the Obama White House to get her to run for U.S. Senate. Or governor.

She said no. And no.

But what about now- What about the Chicago mayor's race-

"It is my intention to run for attorney general," she told me in carefully crafted, lawyerlike language a couple of weeks ago. That was when Chicago Sun-Times columnist Mike Sneed and I were both first reporting that the wheels were turning in the Madigan camp toward the possibility of just such a run.

Can you say in plain language, I asked, that you will not run on Feb. 22 for mayor-

"It is not my intention," she continued to non-answer.

Madigan is nothing if not smart and strategic. She has always been able to pick her time. But as Barack Obama learned, sometimes your time picks you. After saying he, as a first-term U.S. senator, wouldn't run for president in 2008, we all know what happened.

On Tuesday, if Republican Bill Brady beats Democrat Pat Quinn in the governor's race, Lisa Madigan can plot a careful course over the next four years to run to unseat him.

It would be ideal for her. Brady would have had to grapple with the state's nearly insoluble financial problems. And no matter if he does well or poorly, the hard decisions he must make won't win him much love. And Madigan, with an already huge war chest, would be perfectly positioned to go after the top job.

Ah, but what if Pat Quinn wins instead- That's what puts Madigan at the crossroads. As the governor made clear Thursday night on WTTW's "Chicago Tonight" candidate forum, he would not rule out running again in 2014. And Madigan can't want to run against a member of her own party. Or wait eight years to go for the brass ring.

My money says she runs for mayor if Quinn wins. And in so doing, she puts some real speed bumps in the road for Rahm Emanuel, who these days is roaring down Michigan Avenue like General Patton in a tank, picking off potential opponents.

If Emanuel already has, as has been reported, $8 million in campaign cash commitments, Lisa already has something close to that in hard, cold cash.

What a race that would be.

But what about the other Madigan in play at the moment-

Mike Madigan, the all-powerful speaker of the House, is devoted to two things: his daughter and maintaining his legislative majority. He's being given a run for his money by Republican leader Tom Cross who, if things all break his way, could take control of the House from Madigan -- if the GOP can grab 12 more seats on Tuesday. It's a big if.

Whatever happens, win or lose, Mike Madigan has become the poster boy for Illinois' polarized, clout-heavy, toxic politics. Lisa Madigan has so far managed to stay separate from that, but the longer she stays under the same Capitol dome with dad, the greater the possibility it won't accrue to her favor.

Nov. 2 will end one election season and begin another. Keep your eye on the Madigans.

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