McCain sets goal of success in Iraq

John McCain covered a lot of territory Thursday in laying out the foreign policy and domestic goals he hopes to achieve by the end of his first term as president. But one sentence from his speech leaps out: In 2013, he expects to be able to say, "The Iraq war has been won."

When was the last time you've heard anyone use a word like winning in talking about Iraq?

Even the Bush administration mostly avoids terms evoking victory, instead talking about aiming for "success" in Iraq without defining success. During a report to Congress by Iraq commander Gen. David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker in April, Sen. Barack Obama asked them what would constitute success? He didn't get an answer.

But McCain went beyond success to talk about winning and defined what he meant:

"Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension. Violence still occurs, but it is spasmodic and much reduced. Civil war has been prevented; militias disbanded; the Iraqi Security Force is professional and competent; al-Qaida in Iraq has been defeated and the government of Iraq is capable of imposing its authority in every province of Iraq and defending the integrity of its borders. The United States maintains a military presence there, but a much smaller one, and it does not play a direct combat role."

With that positive vision, McCain separates himself from the reduced expectations of the Bush's administration's not-well-defined "success" and the let's-get-out-of-Iraq advocacy of Obama. Democrats charged that McCain had set a timetable for a U.S. troop withdraw. Far from it. His victory goal stands in stark contrast to the defeatist retreat Obama espouses.

A peaceful Middle East also was evoked by President Bush in his speech Thursday to Israel's Knesset. ''From Cairo and Riyadh to Baghdad and Beirut, people will live in free and independent societies,'' Bush said in observing Israel's 60th anniversary. But his pacific vision was forecast for Israel's 120th anniversary -- in 2068.

McCain's goal, admittedly more limited to Iraq, is forecast by 2013.

What gives the presumptive GOP nominee cause for such optimism? Recall that "fragile" and "reversible" were repeated by Petraeus and Crocker in their report on the gains of the military surge in Iraq.

Perhaps McCain looked at the success of the Iraqi government's offensive of the last two months against its enemies and saw an encouraging trend. First was the battle against Shiite militia in Basra, a fight that initially seemed to go badly for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. But, as the New York Times reports, Maliki's soldiers "have largely quieted the city, to the initial surprise and growing delight of many inhabitants . . . "

Then, Maliki took the fight to Baghdad's Sadr City, again confronting militia loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr. As in Basra, a cease-fire was worked out. But also as in Basra, Maliki's forces keep consolidating their positions, and fighting continues. Unlike Basra, U.S. troops are heavily involved in Sadr City, helping build a huge concrete wall to create a safety zone in the southern part of the area.

Maliki apparently felt confident enough about the Sadr City operation to head north this week to Mosul to join his forces fighting al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents in their last major stronghold in Iraq.

He enjoys broad support from all factions of his government, including a Sunni contingent that rejoined it after bolting last year. And the country is moving toward important provincial elections in the fall.

All of this was unimaginable just a year ago, when Iraq seemed to be collapsing into bloody chaos. McCain's supporters will note Iraq was but one of many goals he outlined. But it was the first one he listed, demonstrating again how important progress in Iraq is to McCain's presidential aspirations.

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