Will Indiana, N.C. block Dem meltdown?
Democrats could be careening down the track toward a train wreck -- their version of the disputed 2000 election. That's the one where Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush captured the Electoral College tally and, after messy Florida recounts and litigation, the presidency. This nightmare could be repeated for the Democrats if they emerge from their primary season with Barack Obama leading in the delegate count but Hillary Clinton ahead in the popular vote.
As in the 2000 Florida results that tilted victory to Bush, this scenario depends on how you count the votes. This time the Democrats' version of the hanging chads -- do you count them or do you not? -- are Florida and Michigan. If you don't add them into the total, Obama is ahead in the popular vote as well as the delegate numbers. Include them and Clinton leads in the popular balloting by a margin of more than 122,000 votes, according to an analysis by the RealClearPolitics Web site. (Several states that held caucuses haven't released vote totals; the RealClearPolitics analysis estimated those results and Clinton hangs on to a 12,000-vote lead.)
The Democratic National Committee isn't counting Florida and Michigan because they violated party rules by moving up the dates for their primaries to January in a bid to have more influence on the nomination. Ironically, it turns out that they would have been better off sticking to their later dates.
That's water under the bridge and Clinton insists those votes be counted -- let's face it, that's her only hope of winning the nomination. Obama counters that rules are rules, and Florida and Michigan didn't follow them and so can't be registered. Neither candidate campaigned in Florida. Obama took his name off the Michigan ballot, though his forces urged Democrats to cast ballots for "uncommitted," which ended up with more than 40 percent of the vote.
Eight contests remain, and the speculation is that, though the two candidates may split them, Clinton has a good chance of coming out better in the popular vote. That would leave Democratic superdelegates, who must in the end tip the scales to one candidate, in a tough spot. It's true that Florida and Michigan didn't follow the party regulations, but how can the reality of their votes be denied? On the other hand, how can the superdelegates ignore Obama's play-by-the-rules delegate lead?
Obama has the better argument on the face of it, but this is a year like no other. The political calculus is complicated for any number of reasons. Not the least of them is that little in the way of substance separates the two candidates on major issues. The battle has come to be waged over peripheral, not to say unimportant, factors.
The "Bittergate," the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, Michelle "for the first time ... I'm really proud of my country" Obama and flag pin controversies have raised thorny questions for Obama regarding cultural attitudes and elitism -- is he out of touch with mainstream American values? Clinton wrestles with Clinton fatigue and high poll numbers questioning her honesty -- is she too disliked by too many voters to win in the fall? Though Obama has enjoyed huge support from white voters -- he wouldn't be on the brink of victory without them -- his poor showing among working-class whites in Pennsylvania and Ohio and continuing fallout from Wright's rants have injected the issue of race into the campaign: Just how big is the percentage of whites who won't vote for an African American?
Given that witches' brew, the superdelegates hope voters will yet sort this out. The best chance for that may come in two May 6 primaries. The voter demographics favor Clinton in Indiana and Obama in North Carolina. Should one of them win on the other's turf, this titanic struggle could be over.
Republicans can only sit on the sidelines and marvel at the gift presented them in a year tailor-made for a Democratic victory. While the dynamics still are against the GOP's John McCain, he has a better chance than any one thought imaginable as recently as a couple of months ago.
