Momentum turns toward Obama in S.C.

African-American support is growing by the day

Who is going to win? Who the heck knows? That's as true in the Democratic contest for president as it is in the Republican. National polls may show Hillary Clinton slightly ahead of Barack Obama on the Democratic side and John McCain slightly ahead of Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee on the Republican side, but the polls have been sorry predictors of reality.

In New Hampshire, an Obama win was mistakenly predicted. In Nevada, it was neck-and-neck. There Clinton squeaked by with support from the state's political establishment, women and Hispanics.

But in South Carolina, the African-American vote for Obama is increasing daily. When the presidential race began, African Americans weren't sure of Obama's viability. They knew the Clintons. They knew the Clintons understood them.

The uncertainty about Obama's success was born from African Americans' own insecurity: They could not believe, that in this day and age, when racism is still endemic, that an African American would come so close to winning the Democratic primary. (A recent CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll underlines this. Asked if the country is ready for a black president, 72 percent of whites answered yes; only 61 percent of blacks answered yes.)

But Obama's heady win in Iowa and his close seconds in New Hampshire and Nevada have shown doubters that he has the right stuff. Back in 1988, Jesse Jackson did well in Iowa, true, but he did not have the money or the support of the white community the way Obama does. He was seen as the champion of black activists.

With 50 percent of the Democratic vote in South Carolina being African American, the sentiment seems to be on Obama's side in the primary Saturday.

The see-saw struggle between Clinton and Obama in the early states has made it hard to predict what the outcome will be on Super Tuesday when the big states such as New York, California and Illinois cast their votes.

But criticism about some of Bill Clinton's comments and news from Chicago that Obama received campaign contributions tainted by indicted businessman Tony Rezko are having no resonance with the voters. (Obama has given much of the money to charity.)

No one cares about the Rezko issue outside Chicago, in light of the much more egregious wrongdoings of Republicans who have been forced out of office. Remember Duke Cunningham of California and his relationship with lobbyist Jack Abramoff?

What is more at stake for Obama or Clinton is the torn feelings that African Americans have about their fidelity to the Clintons and their pride in having such a charismatic African-American man running for president.

Some of that was expressed by the Obama supporters who gathered in front of the State Assembly in Columbia, S.C., on Monday to celebrate Martin Luther King's birthday. There were Clinton backers there, too, but the Obama crowd was more expressive. According to Agence France Presse, one spectator carried a sign that read: "No Clinton Dynasty."

Although former Atlanta mayor, U.N. ambassador and Martin Luther King acolyte Andrew Young has claimed Bill Clinton is "every bit as black" as Obama -- because he grew up in Arkansas, witnessed the horrors of racism and worked hard to improve the lot of African Americans in his state -- his statement won't hold much water with young black voters.

Young is a "has-been," one of the old guard of civil rights workers whose hard struggles have become just history book anecdotes for the younger African-American generation that has embraced Obama as an icon of change. If you can believe the polls, Rasmussen Reports says Obama now leads among African Americans in South Carolina by 64 percent to Clinton's 20 percent.

What is very true is that this is an absolutely fascinating race. A woman and a black man running so closely on a path that could eventually lead one of them to the top job in Washington.

As Bill Clinton himself noted in an address commemorating Martin Luther King on Monday morning, alluding not only to his wife and Obama: "How cool is it, we've got all these people seeking the presidency," he said "and it's all because of Martin Luther King's vision."

Very cool, indeed.