Edwards trying to collar case of Iowa blues

Dem candidate pitches farmers, unions as he falls behind in polls

During the last week of October, I follow John Edwards for a few days around rural Iowa. One morning, I pull up to a high school in Corning where Edwards is due to speak, parking beside a car with a bumper sticker that says "Hogs For Edwards" above "Support the Family Farm."

Corning, in the southwestern part of the state, has a population of less than 2,000 and is best known as the birthplace of the late ''Tonight Show'' host Johnny Carson. In the last presidential election, President Bush had more support here than Democrat John Kerry.

Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina and Kerry's vice presidential running mate, has come here for the fight of his political life. He is slipping in the Iowa polls; he does not draw the mega crowds that follow Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) or Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), and he is not pulling in the huge sums of money that are fueling their campaigns.

So, wearing blue jeans and an unpressed shirt, he is traveling around rural Iowa, making his pitch to farmers and small-town bankers and local machinists, because that is where he knows he may be able to pull out the caucus-goers.

In Corning, he talks about Iraq, the economy, universal health care and corruption in Washington, and then he concludes by asking the crowd for its caucus support. "Look carefully at the candidates," he says. "Look inside their integrity, their character and honesty. Can you trust them?"

The next morning in Des Moines Edwards makes a speech about shoring up Americans' pensions, and he is introduced by an impassioned supporter named Doug Bishop who once worked at the now defunct Maytag plant in Newton.

Bishop tells the crowd that just after he was laid off from Maytag in 2004, he and his family met Edwards, and Edwards bent down on one knee to greet Bishop's 7-year-old son. "He looked my son in the eye and said, 'I'm going to fight for your dad's job.' "

Two years later, says Bishop with a catch in his voice, Edwards was back in Newton speaking to members of the United Auto Workers just after Whirlpool Inc. announced it would close the Maytag plant. "He hadn't forgotten us," Bishop says.

Edwards has a strong appeal for blue-collar workers, with his campaign for union rights and his leftist stand on free trade (which he says has eroded American jobs). He has won the endorsement of 10 state councils of the Service Employees International Union, including Iowa, and other big unions such as the United Steelworkers.

He will need all their help. The University of Iowa noted in its poll Monday that among likely caucus-goers, Edwards' support has slipped 6 percentage points since August and he is now at 20 percent, compared with Clinton's 28.9 percent and Obama's 26.6 percent.

During a telephone interview, David Redlawsk, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, says it is still a three-way race, but Edwards has lost ground to Obama. Those supporting Clinton have remained staunch. "Edwards started at an unreasonably high point because he was the candidate here first, so everyone knew him well," Redlawsk says. "As voters started paying attention to the campaign, they started looking at other choices."

Edwards understands this as he journeys through the small towns of Iowa. "You [Iowans as the first caucus voters] have become the guardians for the rest of this country," he says. "And it is the single most important thing for our country to have a president who is honest and sincere and so I hope you will apply that test to me." And then he closes with a megawatt smile: "Bless you all."

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The University of Iowa poll that shows Clinton, Obama and Edwards in a three-way race has several caveats for Clinton and Obama. Clinton and Edwards supporters, it found, are more likely to attend caucuses than Obama's. Women will be the key to Clinton's victory but her supporters are less likely to change their mind about their candidate than Obama's. "In addition to Obama's challenge of getting his supporters out to caucus," Redlawsk said in a statement, "he also has supporters who appear more likely to be considering other candidates."