Mexican ‘invasion’ slowed to a trickle

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Updated: February 21, 2012 8:24AM

Even as the Republican presidential candidates vie to show who’s toughest on illegal immigration, the United States is no longer attracting undocumented workers the way it once did.

Few are talking about this, but the flow of undocumented immigrants — mostly from Mexico — has slowed to a trickle.

Contrary to public perception that the southern border is being overrun, illegal crossings dropped more than 80 percent between 2000 and 2010. That explains why arrests at the border in 2011 were down to their lowest levels since 1972.

According to the Pew Hispanic Center, fewer than 100,000 illegal border-crossers and visa violators from Mexico settled in the U.S. in 2010, down from about 525,000 annually from 2000 to 2004.

The undocumented population — around 12 million — peaked in 2007, with about 58 percent coming from Mexico. It declined as jobs dwindled, and it has remained steady at around 11 million. An estimated 525,000 undocumented immigrants live in Illinois.

These figures confirm the work of experts such as Douglas S. Massey, co-director of the Mexican Migration Project at Princeton University. Massey’s research points to the lowest flow of illegal immigration from Mexico in 50 years.

Massey conducted an extensive survey showing that Mexicans’ desire to come to work in the U.S. has fallen to its lowest level since the 1950s. The economic downturn, improved border security and a record number of deportations have caused Mexicans to think twice about crossing the border. Improving conditions in Mexico also explain the diminished flow of Mexicans moving north.

The birth rate in Mexico has fallen to about 2 children per mother, compared to 6.8 in 1970. That means less competition for jobs and consequently a less pressing need to go north. Improvements in employment and education also are making the dangerous and expensive trip to the north less attractive, especially with the drug cartels controlling the border zone.

But Massey does not anticipate much of an impact on the U.S. economy in the short run.

“For two reasons,” he explained to me. “Labor demand is low, especially in the construction sector, which had been a big driver of Mexican immigration, and because the U.S. is issuing a record number of temporary work visas, which is covering much of the demand in agriculture and food processing.”

Last year, Massey said, more than 500,000 guest workers were from Mexico, the largest number in history.

With illegal immigration virtually stopped, now looks like a pretty good time for President Obama and Congress to legalize the residence status of the millions of undocumented people who live among us. Deport the murderers, rapists and gang-bangers and help the hard-working majority to integrate into their new home.

“I would recommend an amnesty for those who entered as children and an earned legalization program for those who entered as adults,” Massey said. “It is the only sensible thing to do.”

The presidential candidates and others really might want to stop talking about immigration as if there were an ongoing invasion.

Mexicans are staying home.