U of C study says ISATs set 8th-grade math bar too low

Only 3 percent of Chicago students who just barely pass the state’s eighth-grade math test go on to hit at least a 20 on the ACT — a score that could open the door to several state universities, a new University of Chicago study released today found.

Eighth-graders who want a solid shot at college need to do more than just pass the state math test; they need to score well into the "exceeding" state standards category, the study by the U of C’s Consortium on Chicago School Research indicates.

The analysis tracked 40,000 Chicago Public School students who took the Illinois Standards Achievement Test as eighth-graders and went on to take the ACT college admission exam in 2005, 2006 or 2007 as part of their junior-year state exam.

It examined which CPS students made it to a 20 on the ACT — a score CPS has set as a districtwide goal. In 2008, the average CPS graduate scored 17.7 on the ACT compared to 20.5 statewide.

U of C Consortium Director John Easton was stunned to find only 3 percent of CPS eighth-graders who hit the minimum passing score — called "meeting state standards" — in the math ISAT later scored a 20 on the ACT.

"I can’t tell you how many times we checked to make sure it was right," Easton said.

At the very highest end of the "meets" category, the chances of making a 20 on the ACT rose to 56 percent, Easton said. However, the average CPS "meets" student went on to score only 17.5 on the ACT.

Those who just made it into the "exceeding" state standards pool had a 62 percent shot of getting at least a 20 ACT.

Easton said the problem may be that the standards the eighth-grade exam tests are too low for college-bound students.

Schools need to "ratchet up" what they are teaching to keep eighth-graders on track for college, he said.

"Having such low academic standards in eighth grade serves no one well, least of all the students who eke through and then are surprised to find themselves unprepared to do well in high school, let alone college," according to the study "From High School to the Future: The Pathway to 20."

State Schools Supt. Chris Koch said passing ISAT should reflect a "grade level" performance. However, he noted that several districts have complained that some eighth-graders who pass their ISATs need remedial help once they reach high school.

A recent study by the non-profit Achieve Inc. found many of the Illinois learning standards that ISATs and Illinois junior year exams test lack precision and suffer from "key gaps" in areas that "are essential for student success in college and the world of work." As a result, Koch said, the state has joined the American Diploma Project to compare its standards with national and international ones.

The Consortium study used as the passing mark a score set by the state in 2006, when it lowered the cutoff for the eighth-grade math test so it conformed with those of other ISATs. The passing bar fell from roughly the 67th percentile to the 38th percentile, officials said at the time.

State officials insisted they were not "dumbing down" the eighth-grade math test by lowering the cutscore for passing. But that move, Easton said his study indicates, "brought the bar down to a very low standard."

State tests in general have undergone so many changes over the years, Easton said, "Sometimes I think this is all a rubber ruler."