Stuck with no-rings circus

ANALYSIS | After Olympic flop, Daley must face budget gaps, record low popularity

Capturing Olympic gold would have solidified Mayor Daley's builder legacy and provided a bonanza of federal funding, jobs and contracts to bolster Daley's prospects for re-election in 2011.

Will losing the Olympics mark the beginning of the end of the Daley era?

Time will tell, but one thing is certain: After spending his political capital on the Olympics at the expense of higher priorities, the mayor has virtually nothing to show for it.

He comes home to face the grim reality of a $520 million city budget gap, a $300 million CTA shortfall and the continuing fallout from the horrific videotaped beating death of a Fenger High School student.

Without the extraordinary booty from a seven-year-long public works project, he'll be forced to find other ways to rebuild the South Side and reward feisty aldermen, corporate chieftains who bankrolled the bid and union leaders whose concessions helped minimize city layoffs.

"It's a disappointment. But it's not blood in the water," said Ald. Pat O'Connor (40th), the mayor's unofficial City Council floor leader.

"The challenges before him will now be more center stage. But if people think he's vulnerable, they're making a mistake. Losing the Olympics will not be the cause."

Ald. Joe Moore (49th), one of Daley's most outspoken Council critics, said he "can't imagine" how crushed the mayor must be after putting his "prestige and emotional energy" on the line only to be knocked out in the first round of International Olympic Committee voting.

Daley desperately needed a victory after watching his job approval rating sink to 35 percent -- a record low -- in the wake of the parking meter mess and the controversies over Olympic guarantees and his nephew's pension fund investments. What he got was a stunning defeat.

"I don't think it'll have any long-term political implications. But it clearly means that the mayor's got an even tougher hill to climb with respect to trying to stimulate our local economy," Moore said.

"Instead of cutting ribbons, awarding contracts and putting people to work, we're gonna have to think of less-glamorous ways. He'll have to face the reality of a city with a half-billion-dollar deficit and an angry, cynical electorate. It'll be a tough time for all of us."

For years, Daley had no interest in mounting an Olympic bid. He openly ridiculed the IOC for demanding millions just to get in the game. He argued that it would make better sense to build a permanent Olympic site in Greece.

In 2005, the mayor did a head-jerking about-face for reasons he maintained had nothing to do with diverting attention from the Hired Truck and city hiring scandals.

For the last four years, Chicago's 2016 bid has been the ultimate feel-good story.

Whenever there was a negative headline or uncomfortable question, Daley could change the subject to the Olympics.

Daley's singular -- bordering on obsessive -- focus on hosting the 2016 Summer Olympic Games marked a return to an all-or-nothing strategy that has failed him in the past.

"He lost the third-airport. He lost the casino in the Loop [and the downtown circulator]. In the early years, he lost most of the big projects he proposed. He'll find a new project," said former independent Ald. Dick Simpson (44th), a political science professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

After the defeat of those mega projects, Daley lowered his sights. He focused on what he could achieve on his own -- like building police and fire stations, libraries, schools and parks, expanding O'Hare and Midway airports and upgrading the city's overall appearance.

Now, the mayor will be forced to play small-ball once again.

"He may decide he doesn't want to continue as mayor under these circumstances. It might cause him to choose not to run again," Simpson said.

O'Connor noted that the Olympics would have kept the 20-year incumbent "invigorated for seven years. This might cause him to rethink his future."

But one of the mayor's closest confidants sees little chance of that. He noted that Daley's toughness and ability to recharge his own batteries has long been underestimated.

"This is a guy who never wanted the Olympics. He used to get as ginned up about taking over the schools. He'll get energized [about something else]. I don't think the fire is as out as you think it is," the source said.

"Right now, I would bet he runs again. Would I be shocked if he doesn't? No. Twenty-two years is a long time. People change. Moods change. The media changes and politics changes. Anything can happen."