Disparity in baccarat leaves reader puzzled

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Those who dabble in baccarat know that the bet on the banker hand is slightly better than the bet on player. Both are among the better bets in the casino, with a house edge of 1.06 percent if you bet on banker, and 1.24 percent if you bet on player.

The banker bet actually wins a little more often than it loses. With all hands considered, banker wins 45.86 percent of the time, player wins 44.62 percent, and 9.52 percent of hands result in ties. Since the ties push, banker wins 50.68 percent of the time when there is a decision, and player wins 49.32 percent.

The house charges a commission on winning banker bets to get its edge. Any time you win when betting banker, you’ll pay the house a 5 percent commission.

A reader emailed recently to ask why banker wins more often than player. What is it in the drawing rules that would cause the banker hand to come closer to 9 more often than the player hand?

Let’s look for a clue in the rules for playing out the hand. If either player or banker has 8 or 9 in the first two cards, that’s a natural and no more cards are dealt. Assuming no natural, the player hand is completed first. Player stands on totals of 6 or 7, and draws a third on 5 or less.

Banker always stands on 7 as well as 8 or 9, but other plays depend on the player hand. If the player stands, banker hits on 5 or less. If the player takes a third card, banker always hits 0, 1, or 2; hits 3 if the player’s third card is anything but 8; hits 4 if the player’s third card is 2 through 7; hits 5 if the player’s third card is 4 through 7, and hits 6 if the players third card is 6 or 7.

The key difference between drawing strategies for banker and player is that whether the banker draws is largely dependent on the player hand. The banker takes a third card when the player draws one that is more likely to help that hand. That’s the key to the disparity in percentage of wins.

John Grochowski is a local free-lance writer. His “Casino Answer Man” tips air at
5:18 p.m. Tuesday-Friday on WLS-AM (890).