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Downward recessionary spiral has begun

Updated: May 3, 2013 12:14PM



Wednesday's 733-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrials is a sign that the global credit crunch is hitting home -- and hitting retailers and businesses across America.

We've just entered the second phase of the bear market in stocks. We're past the panic about bad news in the banking sector. Now, we've moved into the stage where investors accept that stocks are falling because business is going to be bad in the months ahead.

Many thought the headlines about falling home prices were unique, the bursting of the housing bubble. Now we have proof the slowdown has spread through the economy.

Retail sales fell 1.2 percent in September, the third consecutive month of declines. This is the first time in 17 years that retail sales have fallen for three months in a row. Not even the fear after Sept. 11, 2001, could stall the consumer this badly.

And, remember, the horrible financial headlines didn't really start until October! Now every consumer knows that tough times are coming, and more people are thinking twice about spending. You can be sure that all businesses are making plans to cut back on production and lay off employees. The vicious downward recessionary spiral has begun.

If you're asking about bear markets, historian Jim Stack says the median "bear market" duration since 1929 is 15 months. In 1929, the bear growled for 33 months and attacked again for 42 months, starting in 1938, ended only by World War II. More recently, we suffered through a 30-month bear market, starting from the peak in 2000.

The recession is another story. The average duration of post-World War II recessions is 11 months, from peak to bottom, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. The longest decline came from November 1973 through March 1975, a 17-month recession. The last extended recession ran from July 1981 through November 1982. There was a brief downturn from July 1990 through March 1991.

But those recession statistics only mark the drop. Some recoveries were quick, a "V" formation, while others dragged on, an "L" formation. History doesn't give a reliable guide.

One fact is obvious: Most people under age 40 haven't had to cope with a real recession in their working lifetime! This slowdown will come as a shock.

So here's one consolation: Stock markets tend to rebound before the economy, giving investors something to cheer during the worst of the slowdown. And that's The Savage Truth.



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