Holiday job outlook iffy
ECONOMY | Low sales forecast puts a crimp in retail hiring plans
Pickings are expected to be slimmer than last year for those seeking holiday jobs this season.
A slumping housing market, toy recalls, sky high gas prices and fears about a recession are leaving retailers far less jolly about sales growth, which will put the chill on hiring, forecasters say.
(John J. Kim/Sun-Times)
Although the forecast isn't as bright for holiday job seekers, there are still jobs to be had. Here's some advice from Chicago-based outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas on how to optimize your prospects for landing one this season:
THINK BEYOND the retail cash register or sales floor. There are also opportunities in back-office positions, including shipping, receiving, warehousing, information technology, security and customer service call centers.
OFFER TO BE a floater. Chain stores with several locations might be interested in using floaters to substitute for employees who call in sick or are on vacation.
BROADEN your search. Besides retail stores, opportunities exist with restaurants and in catering, and with shippers such as United Parcel Service and Fed-Ex. Also, large Internet retailers like Amazon.com have facilities across the country. Look for links on their Web sites for career opportunities.
--Francine Knowles
Holiday hiring could be at the lowest level since 2001, according to Chicago-based outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday sales will rise 4 percent to $474.5 billion, a forecast below the 10-year average of 4.8 percent.
Last year, amid a lower-than-forecast 4.6 percent rise in holiday sales by the National Retail Federation, retailers hired 596,000 workers -- 5.25 percent fewer than in 2005.
Twenty-nine percent of Chicago area employers queried by Manpower in its fourth-quarter employment outlook survey said they will hire more workers in the fourth quarter, down from 33 percent in the year-ago period. Fifty-nine percent plan no changes to last year's levels, and 9 percent plan to cut staff.
"I think holiday hiring will be more subdued this year than we saw last year," said Mesirow Financial Chief Economist Diane Swonk, noting consumers are cash strapped and retailers know it. "Anything in the middle market and across the department stores, they are having to grapple with a tug-of-war with consumers, trying to bring them in sooner with holiday merchandise and better, deeper discounts.
"At the same time, consumers are holding their ground until the discounts get deep enough to actually really mean something."
That will put pressure on retailers' profit margins, "which means not as much holiday hiring as you would see for a given set of sales," she said. "Even if sales [volume] were to surprise, you're going to have to wait in longer lines because they're not going to hire as many people to service you."
The exception will be luxury retailers, she said. There, sales are expected to continue at a strong pace, and high-end shoppers won't have to deal with long waits.
Challenger notes some retailers probably will postpone hiring until they have a better handle on holiday sales.
Target Corp. brings on 50,000 to 80,000 additional workers during the holiday season, a spokeswoman said, but she added "it's too difficult to speculate" on whether Target will be at the low or high end of that range this year.
The discount retailer takes a "phased approach" to its holiday hiring. The first of its holiday hires are those responsible for keeping stores stocked, she said. They start work at the beginning of November. In the middle of the month, holiday sales staff are added, and cashiers come on board around Thanksgiving, she said.
Macy's isn't expecting fewer hires this year. It plans to hire 5,500 holiday workers in its eight-state Midwest region, including about 2,000 in the Chicago metropolitan area, comparable to what it did last year, said spokeswoman Jennifer McNamara.
Sears declined to discuss its holiday hiring numbers at Kmart and Sears stores.
"We're certainly making every effort to provide the level of service that our customers are expecting," spokesman Chris Brathwaite said.
Illinois Retail Merchants Association spokesman Peter Gill said Chicago area retailers he queried are expecting to hire "pretty close to what they did last year. They're cautiously optimistic" about holiday sales, he said.
Caution is justified. Archstone Consulting expects holiday retail sales growth in the Chicago area to lag national numbers, noting personal income growth and employment rates in the Chicago market have underperformed the national average. That probably will translate into a decline in holiday hiring, Archstone Director Michael Unger said.