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JP Morgan analyst says iPhone 5 could boost GDP

The Apple iPhone 4s left is displayed next Samsung Galaxy S III store San Francisco Monday Aug. 27 2012. Apple

The Apple iPhone 4s, left, is displayed next to the Samsung Galaxy S III at a store in San Francisco, Monday, Aug. 27, 2012. Apple Inc. on Monday submitted a list of eight Samsung Electronics Co. products it wants pulled from shelves and banned from the U.S. market. Apple submitted the list after a jury found Samsung copied the iPhone and iPad in creating and marketing the products. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

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Updated: September 11, 2012 7:36PM



The iPhone 5, expected to be unveiled by Apple Inc. Wednesday, could help the economy grow, according to a JP Morgan analyst.

“We believe the release of iPhone 5 could potentially add between a quarter- to a half-percentage-point to fourth-quarter annualized GDP growth,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for JP Morgan, wrote in a research note.

The analysis:

♦Estimates about 8 million iPhone 5s will be sold in the United States in the fourth quarter at a price of $600, based on previous launching of iPhones.

♦Subtracts $200 a phone for imported parts, means each iPhone would add $400 to Gross Domestic Product.

♦Expects that even with the new model, earlier generation iPhones will maintain their sales pace.

Based on those assumptions, sales of the iPhone 5 could add $3.2 billion to GDP, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate, boosting annualized growth in the fourth quarter by 0.33 percent.

“This estimate seems fairly large, and for that reason should be treated skeptically,” Feroli wrote. “However, we think the recent evidence is consistent with this projection.”



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