U.S. gasoline appetite shrinking
By Jonathan Fahey December 30, 2010 9:32PM
Updated: August 4, 2011 4:20PM
The world’s biggest gas-guzzling nation has limits after all.
Americans burned an average of 8.2 million barrels — 344 million gallons — of gasoline a day in 2010, a figure that excludes the ethanol blended into gasoline. That’s 8 percent less than at the 2006 peak, according to government data.
After seven decades of mostly uninterrupted growth, U.S. gasoline demand is at the start of a long-term decline. By 2030, Americans will burn at least 20 percent less gasoline than today, experts say, even as millions more cars clog the roads.
The country’s thirst for gasoline is shrinking as cars and trucks become more fuel-efficient, the government mandates the use of more ethanol and people drive less.
“The heady days of gasoline growing in the U.S. are over,” said Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates and author of a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of the oil industry.
Government and industry officials — including the CEO of Exxon Mobil — said U.S. gasoline demand has peaked for good. It has declined four years in a row and will not reach the 2006 level again, even when the economy fully recovers.
Baby boomers will drive less as they age. The surge of women entering the work force and commuting in recent decades has leveled off. And the era of Americans commuting ever farther distances appears to be over. One measure of this, vehicle miles traveled per licensed driver, began to flatten in the middle of the last decade after years of sharp growth.
The shift from SUVs began in 2004 and has saved Americans $15 billion on gasoline this year, according to the National Resources Defense Council. There are scenarios that, while unlikely, could temporarily upend the long-term downward trend in gasoline use. If the U.S. economy booms and global oil prices fall, demand for gasoline could rise.
America will continue to burn more gasoline than any other country, in total and per capita, for decades. China is second in total consumption, but despite its explosive growth, still uses half of what the U.S. uses. Canada is second in consumption per capita but is also on a path toward a more fuel-efficient economy.
While America’s diminishing demand will temper global demand, it will be more than offset by rapidly growing demand in China, India, the Middle East and Africa. As a result, declining U.S. gasoline demand will not bring lower pump prices.
AP
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